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Excess Mortality as the Primary Mediator of COVID-19’s Impact on Life Expectancy in Europe: A Multilevel Longitudinal Analysis of Regional Disparities

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4. Discussion

"Finally, the presented model partitions the East–West health gap, revealing that only about 21% of the 5.8-year disparity is explained by differences in GDP, health spending, and pandemic mortality. The remaining 79% represents a persistent, residual deficit, probably attributable to historical, economic, institutional, healthcare, lifestyle, and cultural factors. Decades of consistent gains in life expectancy across Europe began to slow around 2011, well before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We observed that across all European regions, life expectancy showed a steady upward trend during the pre-pandemic period (2015–2019), with consistent annual improvements. This trajectory was abruptly disrupted in 2020, when the pandemic caused a sharp decline or, in some cases, stagnation. In 2021, life expectancy reached its lowest point in three regions, reflecting the delayed peak in mortality, with Eastern Europe experiencing the most pronounced drop—from 74.30 years in 2019 to 71.79 in 2021. Notably, by 2023, all regions except Eastern Europe had recovered to or even surpassed their pre-pandemic levels, indicating a demographic rebound (Figure 3)."

 

Document - Excess Mortality as the Primary Mediator of COVID-19’s Impact on Life Expectancy in Europe: A Multilevel Longitudinal Analysis of Regional Disparities

Published: May 25, 2026

By: Viorel Țarcă, Solange Tamara Roșu, Elena Cojocaru, Lăcrămioara Ionela Butnariu, Iulia Cristina Roca, Ancuța Lupu, Dana Elena Mindru, Paula Popovici and Elena Țarcă

1 Faculty of Medicine, Apollonia University, Strada Păcurari nr. 11, 700511 Iasi, Romania

2 Grigore T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 700115 Iasi, Romania

Medicina 2026, 62(6), 1020; https://doi.org/10.3390/medicina62061020

Submission received: 31 March 2026 / Revised: 10 May 2026 / Accepted: 18 May 2026 / Published: 25 May 2026

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact on Human Health, Lifestyle and Quality of Care After COVID-19, 2nd Edition)

Link: https://www.mdpi.com/1648-9144/62/6/1020 - (Opens in new window)

 


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